【新唐人2011年4月14日訊】國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)4月11號發佈《全球經濟展望》報告警告：中國可能正在形成信貸和資產泡沫，最終或將破裂。經濟學家們指出，中國通貨膨脹正進入危險的領域，政府的宏觀調控面臨兩難，目前中國經濟正在被推向「滯脹」。
國際貨幣基金組織的報告就中國經濟面臨的中期風險，發出異常嚴厲的警告。報告說：中國的信貸和資產價格漲勢「令人擔憂」。報告對中國消費者價格漲勢提出警告，預計中國今年通貨膨脹率可能達到5%，超過政府4%的目標。經濟學家們普遍認為，中國通貨膨脹的根本原因是貨幣發行量過多及信貸過量。
北京天則經濟研究所理事長茅於軾說：「通脹就是前幾年投資太多，而且投到沒有效益的項目上賠錢，沒有提供更多的產品。所以要改善我們的投資規則，讓民間投資要啟動起來，現在投資都是政府在投，這個是通脹造成的原因。」
據《華爾街日報》報導，哥倫比亞大學商學院教授貝姆（David Beim的一篇重要的新論文《中國增長的未來》（The Future of Chinese Growth）指出，中國是在利用大量超額貸款保持增長引擎的運轉，中國經濟恐怕要踩剎車。
據貝姆研究，中國的固定資本形成總額（Gross fixed capital formation）從1980年佔GDP的29%上升至2010年的42%，大多數投入的資金來自國有商業銀行給國有企業的貸款，這也是導致低效和腐敗的原因。而且，隨著中共政府在本世紀初為中國的銀行清理帳本，價值數千億美元的壞賬奇蹟般地消失了。
與此同時，中國通脹目前接近5%。溫家寶在3月份的新聞發佈會上說，通貨膨脹就像是一只老虎，如果放出來就很難再關進去。
《新世紀週刊》11號發表經濟學家謝國忠的文章指出，中國的通貨膨脹正在進入危險的領域。有跡象表明，通脹的恐慌正在蔓延。囤積現象已不時可見。當囤積成為普遍現象時，就很可能爆發社會危機。
至今，北京當局已連續出臺了許多項調控政策，但是，物價和房價仍在不斷飛漲。 謝國忠表示，行政權力無法治癒通脹，政府迫使企業不漲價只能暫時起作用。當投入成本每年以20%到30%的速度增長時，不提價，就沒有企業能生存。
4月5號，中國央行在半年內第4次加息0.25個百分點。謝國忠認為，這仍然遠不足以「消除人們對於政府製造通脹的恐懼」。 他警告，資本效率的下降和持續的負實際利率導致「滯脹」。嚴重的「滯脹」總是會導致貨幣貶值，並一定會觸發金融危機。滯脹期間將不可避免地發生社會動盪。
北京大學經濟學院教授夏業良說：「因為中國人口這麼多，經濟如果蕭條了，失業人口增大的話，社會壓力就特別大。而且官方其實更害怕的是失業壓力加大，因為那個時候，可能社會動盪不安。」
專家學者們警告，在日趨嚴峻的國內國際環境下，目前中國的增長模式正在將經濟推向「滯脹」，最終可能導致泡沫破裂和金融危機，由此引發的社會動盪，或使中國的政治體制無法實現和平轉型，同時加大進行根本的政治改革和經濟改革的難度。
新唐人記者李元翰、柏妮綜合報導。
IMF Warns China of Credit and Asset Bubbles
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says
in its annual World Economic Outlook report
that China』s economy faces increasing pressure
from credit and asset bubbles. Economists cautioned
the danger of inflation in China
leading the country』s economy to stagflation.
The IMF warned China of the risks in its economy:
"There are mounting concerns about the potential
for steep corrections in property prices."
It estimated the inflation rate in China would
reach 5%, higher than the government estimated 4%.
Economists believe such inflation is caused by
excessive credit and currency expansion.
Mao Yushi, president of Unirule Institute
of Economics: “Inflation means too much investments
were made in unprofitable projects, and didn』t yield
more products. So we need to improve our investment
patterns, and encourage private investments.
Now most investments are made by the government,
which is the cause of the inflation.
Prof. Davice Beim at Columbia Business School wrote
in his recent article “The Future of Chinese Growth”
that China is relying on loan expansion to protect
the growth rate of the economy, and it has to stop.
China』s gross fixed capital formation has increased
steadily from 29% to 42% of GDP from 1980 to 2010.
Most investments are made by state-owned banks
lending to state-owned companies, which also causes
inefficiency and corruption, according to Beim.
At the turn of the century, hundreds of billions
of dollars in bad debt have disappeared,
as China tried to clean up its banks.
The inflation rate in China is approaching 5%.
Wen Jiabao compared inflation to a tiger –
once it』s out, it』s hard to lock it back in.
Economist Xie Guozhong wrote in Century Weekly
that China』s inflation has become very dangerous.
Panic is spreading and people have started to hoard.
Once it becomes common, a social crisis will erupt.
Despite various government control measures
prices in China are still rising drastically.
Xie believes the effects of administrative measures
are only temporary, and cannot stop inflation.
When investment costs increase 20-30% each year,
no company can survive without raising prices.
On April 5, China』s Central Bank increased interest
rates by 0.25%, the fourth time in 6 months,
which is still far from eliminating
the fear of inflation, according to Xie Guozhong.
Xie warns that capital inefficiency and
negative real interest rate will cause stagflation,
which in turn will lead to currency depreciation,
and eventually a financial and social crisis.
Prof. Xia Yeliang from Beijing University:
“If the economy slows down and unemployment rises,
because of the large population,
the Chinese society will face tremendous pressure,
which may cause unrest and instability.”
Experts warn that under the current circumstances,
China』s growth pattern will lead to stagflation
in economy, and possibly a financial crisis.
Social movements caused by such crisis
may hinder the process of political
and economical reforms in China.
NTD reporters Li Yuanhan and Bo Ni
