【禁聞】專家析薄去向 指胡擒薄 習溫助力

【新唐人2012年3月19日訊】薄熙來在中共兩會結束的第二天被宣佈免職，江系要員張德江將入主重慶。薄熙來18大想「入常」的野心已經化成泡影。如今，外界緊密關注薄熙來未來的去向和結局。有專家分析，薄熙來下馬是由胡錦濤拍板，而這其中溫家寳和習近平也起到了推動作用。評論指出，薄熙來的生死並不重要，能否借薄熙來來清除江家幫的勢力才是關鍵。

中共中央15號宣佈免去薄熙來的地方職務，但並沒有免去他的中央政治委員和中央委員會委員職務。不過，《華盛頓郵報》指出，薄熙來在中央政治局的職務已經拉警報。

由於政治局委員撤職或免職要由中央委員會全會決定，香港《動向》雜誌主編張偉國預測，薄熙來可能會在中共十八大前的十七屆七中全會露面。

張偉國：「不管他是真身露面還是他的名字露面，那個全會我想會有一個交代。是不是還保留他的政治局委員、中央委員的職務啊，還是像陳良宇、陳希同那樣一起解決掉。」

時事評論員文昭指出，對比2006年中共處理陳良宇案件時，是把陳良宇的上海書記和中央政治局委員同時免除，所以和目前的薄熙來案還是有區別。

文昭：「 從溫家寶的講話，他希望走法律處理的道路，他可能希望把薄熙來送進監獄，從他的講話中看是有這樣的意思。但從現在情況來看，胡溫並沒有完全控制局面。就是現在還留有一定的餘地。」

15號，《重慶衛視》重慶新聞聯播報導，會上張德江發言說重慶是個好地方，但薄熙來沒有出席。《多維網》報導，兩會結束後，薄熙來並沒有和重慶代表團一起離京，而是留在北京，接受中央調查。

張偉國分析，薄熙來接受審查是毫無疑問的，而對於外界猜測薄熙來是否會被關進監牢，張偉國認爲不能排除這個下場，甚至比這還嚴重。因爲他的政治對手可能會把他徹底從肉體上消滅掉。

張偉國：「在中共目前的政壇上面，幾乎無出其右啊，沒有人比他更心狠手辣的。所以只要給他留一個活口，他有朝一日反攻倒算，惹出更大的麻煩來。我自己感覺，不管是他自願了斷，還是被自願了斷，這個可能性要比去『秦城監獄』還要大。因為他的存在，對體制是太可怕了。」

文昭分析指出，薄熙來發配重慶後咄咄逼人，大搞「重慶模式」與胡錦濤的科學發展觀分庭抗禮，去年6月搞的「千人紅歌團進京」，更是被視爲要挾中央，讓胡錦濤相當不愉快。

文昭：「薄熙來他本人的政治前途基本完結了，沒甚麽太大的懸念，能不能借薄熙來案把江派勢力從中央踢出去，這是下一步的關鍵。如果通過打薄熙來不能夠清除江家幫的勢力的話，那麼其實打薄熙來本身並沒有甚麼意義。」

近期，外界傳出胡錦濤想留任軍委主席的消息，文昭認爲，這可能與中央決定拿下薄熙來有很大關係。這其中，溫家寳和習近平也起了推動作用。

文昭：「因爲他在十八大以後要把大部分職務交出去。如果他繼續想對中國的未來發揮影響力的話，他就需要在這個時候樹立威信，可是薄熙來偏偏在這個時候頻繁挑戰他的威信。那這就產生了一個尖銳的衝突，逼得胡錦濤不得不對他動手。」

採訪/周玉林 編輯/王子琦 後製/周平

Experts On Bo Xilai’t Future

After the Chinese Communist Party’ (CCP) Two Sessions,

Bo Xilai’t removal from his position was announced.

A key member from Jiang Zemin’t faction, Zhang Dejiang,

was placed as the new CCP secretary of Chongqing.

As Bo’t dream to join the Politburo Standing Committee

is gone, his fate has drawn attention home and abroad.

Analyses speculate that Hu Jintao decided about Bo,

with Wen Jiabao and Xi Jinping playing an assisting role.

Commentators think Hu’t ultimate goal is to root out Jiang

group’t influence, with Bo’t removal being a key step.

On March 15th, the CCP announced the dismissal of Bo Xilai

as the Chongqing party secretary.

Bo still keeps his positions as a member of CCP’t Politburo

and the Central Committee (CC).

However, a report from the Washington Post believes,

those two memberships are also in danger for Bo.

A dismissal of any Politburo member requires an approval

from the CCP’t Central Committee.

Thus Bo Xilai will probably show up at the 7th Plenary Session

of the 18th CCP National Congress, thinks Zhang Weiguo, chief editor of Hong Kong’t Trend magazine.

Zhang Weiguo: ”Will Bo attend the session in person

or “by name” only?

I believe the decision will be made at that time, including

whether his positions in the Politburo and CC will be kept.

As well as, whether he will be sent to prison,

like Chen Liangyu and Chen Xitong.”

Political commentator Wen Zhao sees Bo’t case

as somewhat different than Chen Liangyu’t .

In 2006, Chen was removed as Shanghai party secretary,

and as a member of Politburo at the same time.

Wen Zhao: ”Based on Wen Jiabao’t words, he prefers to deal

with Bo Xilai by law, possibly expecting to send him to prison.

This can be sensed from his speech.

However, now Hu-Wen still have no complete control over

the situation, so there may be some changes in the future.”

On March 15th, the Chongqing Satellite TV Station reported

on the reaction of the new city CCP secretary Zhang Dejiang.

At his first official meeting in Chongqing, with the absence

of Bo Xilai, he said, “Chongqing is a good place.”

According to dwnews.com, Bo didn’t leave Beijing, and after

the Two Sessions was kept to be investigated by the CCP.

Zhang Weiguo believes that Bo is under investigation

right now.

As to whether Bo will be sent to prison, Zhang thinks it is

possible, since his enemies might attempt to murder him.

Zhang Weiguo: ”Inside the CCP, there’t almost nobody

more cruel and merciless than Bo Xilai.

Therefore as long as you leave him alive, he might come

back some day for revenge and cause worse trouble.

In my opinion, it’t more likely for him to suiside or be killed,

than to be jailed, as his existence is dreadful to the regime.”

Wen Zhao remarked that Bo has taken aggressive moves

after being “banished” to Chongqing.

He developed his “Chongqing model”

to counteract Hu Jintao’t “Scientific Outlook.”

Hu was especially unhappy with Bo’t sending to Beijing

the thousand-people red-song-singing group last June, which was regarded as an intimidation to the CC.

Wen Zhao: ”Now there’t a little doubt that Bo’t political life

has been almost done for.

For Hu Jintao and his group, the key next step is to take

this chance to eliminate Jiang’t faction in the CC.

If this can’t be done, the act of removing Bo Xilai

doesn’t mean much in and of itself.”

Recent rumors state that Hu Jintao likes to stay Chairman

of the Central Military Commission after the 18th Congress.

Wen Zhao thinks Bo’t removal aimed at this goal,

with Wen Jiabao and Xi Jinping also playing assisting roles.

Wen Zhao: ”Hu Jintao will have to quit most of his positions

after the 18th National Congress.

If he attempts to continue his influence in China, he needs

to establish his prestige as much as possible before that.

However, Bo Xilai had frequently challenge him at the time,

which induced intensive conflicts between them, and finally forced Hu to take actions against him.”